本帖最后由 伊凡 于 2009-3-18 10:10 編輯 9 t c- t D# `2 `# w2 z9 z- y8 f; I
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The government of China, General Administration of Customs, via the state-controlled Xinhua news, has released data covering its exports of all types of bearings, for December 2008 and the full year. 9 e2 O/ M W, W+ s: I, _
6 O; i* V2 h) O& }+ F* ]China's state-volunteered export data is notoriously inaccurate, tending to dramatically understate both the quantity and value. Although the specific numbers may be suspect, the data does offer insight to general trends in volume, growth, and pricing which have proven valuable in terms of general industry analysis.
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| Export data for December 2008 [/td] | | count [td]218,770,000 bearings [/td] | | total value USD [td]$155.1 million [/td] | | average value USD [td]$0.709 [/td] | | [/td] | | Compared to November 2008 [/td] | | count [td]197,430,000 bearings [/td] | | total value USD [td]$153.5 million [/td] | | average value USD [td]$0.777 [/td] | | [/td] | | Compared to October 2008 [/td] | | count [td]258,040,000 bearings [/td] | | total value USD [td]$176.6 million [/td] | | average value USD [td]$0.684 [/td] | | [/td] | | Compared to September 2008 [/td] | | count [td]280,630,000 bearings [/td] | | total value USD [td]$195.3 million [/td] | | average value USD [td]$0.695 |
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As the export data indicates, the global economic slowdown is having a strong impact on bearing manufacturers in China, masked somewhat by seasonality in the raw numbers. There are also numerous reports that year-end data is subject to many government "adjustments" needed to show production met levels indicated by the central planners.
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Although there is some seasonality apparent in the bearing export data supplied, China's bearing exports are clearly dropping more sharply than in previous years.
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9 K+ R' `# b' [1 F$ e| July [td]324 million bearings [/td] | | August [td]312 million [/td] | | September [td]281 million [/td] | | October [td]258 million [/td] | | November [td]197 million [/td] | | December [td]219 million |
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& x7 g% r* w! \5 lCalendar year 2008 ' X8 y. S7 A; c$ b k6 H
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| 2008 exports [td]3.349 billion bearings [/td] | | 2007 exports [td]3.265 billion bearings [/td] | | [td] [/td] | | 2008 export value [td]$2.06 billion [/td] | | 2007 export value [td]$1.55 billion |
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The most telling numbers, however, are eBearing.com's own rolling year-on-year figures for export growth. As 2008 wore on, we calculate China's bearing industry -- almost completely dependent upon exports -- suffered a dramatic slowdown which is reflected in the year-on-year growth rate from 2007:
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6 \) L1 W2 r) p0 z" Q: c| through June [td]15% [/td] | | through July [td]14% [/td] | | through August [td]13% [/td] | | through September [td]11% [/td] | | through October [td]10% [/td] | | through November [td]5.5% [/td] | | through December year-end [td]2.6% |
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